The almost universal narrative of the media is that Mark Carney is a political neophyte running against seasoned politicians. While it is true that he has never held any elected position, his record in his fist couple of weeks is that of a seasoned pro eating his opponents for lunch. His actions have been well-planned and executed with precision.
I would conclude that Carney was always inclined towards politics and his sojourns into banking were mere sidebars to his preferred career. His banking years were probably somewhat frustrating as he tried to use the limited monetary tools at his disposal (interest rates) to keep the economies of Canada and England ticking along in spite of some of the reckless fiscal policies (Brexit) coming from his political peers but it also provided a cat bird seat to watch those politicians at work … and learn.
Even before Trudeau resigned Carney was very deliberately distancing himself from the Trudeau record. Trudeau had been making it very clear for a couple of years that he wanted Carney to run for a seat but Carney always declined. Even Last December when Freeland resigned as Finance Minister, the story that Trudeau had offered the job to Carney came from unnamed Liberal sources and neither Carney nor anybody in his team has ever confirmed it. Trudeau never stated it publicly nor, to my knowledge, did Freeland. I suspect it was a fishing expedition on Trudeau’s part like all his previous offers. Given the changes that Carney has made to the Liberal platform in a matter of days, I think it is clear that he was unhappy with how Trudeau was running things and intended to steer clear of getting in beyond an advisory role.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-bloc-quebecois-dissolve-parliament-call/
The contrast is stark. Trudeau was good in a crisis such as Covid and the last couple of months against Donald Trump – he showed he could make tough decisions when they were needed. But for most of his time as Prime Minister he was very tentative, and failed to act on numerous issues unless the opinion polls showed strong support, and even that was sometimes not enough – for example proportional representation promised in his first mandate but allowed to fizzle. He also promised to eliminate subsidies for the fossil fuel industries but failed to deliver. Trudeau lacked leadership.
Carney’s record is only a couple of weeks old, but he has made more decisions in those weeks than Trudeau did in several months – and they were decisions that changed the agenda – decisions that displayed leadership.
Among Carney’s first actions was to pull the rug out from under Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre by cancelling the so-called carbon tax, and axing the increase in the capital gains – and the Conservatives have been flailing ever since to find something to campaign on.
The shift in the polls is a clear testament to the political wisdom of that move. I, for one, was never impressed that the Conservatives had built up a huge 20%+ public opinion gap over the Liberals. In the 2 1/2 year that he has been leader Poilievree has failed to take firm positions on most major issues, relying instead on slick slogans. People noticed. They had expressed their frustration with Trudeau by parking their support with the Conservatives but it was so tentative that the moment Trudeau was gone they’ve shifted back to the Liberals. It now looks like Carney will win a majority, perhaps a very large one.
That leaves Trump as the main adversary and very different from Trudeau or Poilievre Carney has had the advantage of watching from the sidelines for the first couple of months of Trump2. He watched as Trump bullied his opponents worldwide and watched as the US president flip-flopped around and even his closest advisors didn’t know where he would land.
Trump’s dream has been that he could bully the rest of the world into submitting to his demands – that countries would meekly accept his tariffs and not retaliate. But instead the world is turning against the US and the privileged position the US has enjoyed for almost 100 years has gone up in smoke. Nobody trusts the US anymore
There is no doubt that Carney outflanks Trump by far in intellect (Oxford Phd in economics) but Trump is a slippery and unpredictable fish. Carney I believe was right to remain aloof and Trump made the first move seeking a meeting (by phone) apparently cordial which in itself is a victory for Carney.
It may take a while but Canada will win this battle and the US will likely fall into a long recession and and the US will likely never fully regain their role as leader of the free world.
Why am i confident? Because Canada is united. Canadians are willing to fight. for their country They know that they will have to endure some pain and they are ready for it. In contrast 48% of Americans voted for Harris so he starts out with half the population against him. And the ones that voted for him are waiting for him to create thousands of ‘beautiful’ jobs and bring prices and inflation down. So when the tariffs begin to bite and prices go up and thousands of auto workers are laid off – and his ‘brief disruption’ stretches into months, his support will plummet.
Trump won’t back down easily – he will almost certainly blame it on the people around him (Elon will be one of the first to go), but Trump will likely double down. Eventually, members of Congress will find their backbones and start pushing back. It won’t take many because the margins are so so tight in both the House and Senate. Because they are so tight it is even conceivable that the Democrats might even win back majorities as vacancies open up and new elections fill them.
The midterms will be likely be a rout and severely cripple Trump’s one-man rule. His final two years will be dominated by the roar of a caged lion.
You might have concluded from this that I’m Liberal but actually I’m a Green Party supporter and have been for more than 20 years (even ran for them a couple of times). I’m a Green because I care deeply for the environment and I cringe at the thought of what we’re doing to the Earth. I cringe at the mess we’re leaving for future generations.
In that regard, Carney seems to have good bona fides. For the last 5 years he has been the “UN Special Envoy for Climate Action & Finance and also chair of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, private-sector group that focuses on supporting efforts within the financial services sector to achieve the Paris Agreement objectives towards net -zero.
